Report: D.C.-area home prices to keep falling - Washington Business Journal:

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California-based PMI (NYSE: PMI) reaches that conclusion in its Secondc Quarter 2009 Economic and Real EstateTrendes Report, and its U.S. Market Risk Index. The report says approximately 85 percentg ofthe nation's 381 metropolitan statisticakl areas (MSAs) are now facing increased risk of lowef home prices in 2011. Florida, California, Nevada and Arizonw continue to have the highest risk scorexs but an increased risk of lower future pricez is now spreading across all region s of the nation because of the significant increases in unemployment andforeclosure rates.
The Washington area which includesthe District, Northern Maryland and parts of West Virginiq — showed a 92 percent chance of lower prices. Baltimore has a 90 percent chance of homepricexs dropping, according to the report. "Rapidly risinb foreclosure and unemployment continuing declines in house and weakening consumer demand all workef to increase risk in the general and the housing market saidDavid Berson, PMI's chie economist and strategist.
"As a result of the continuefd weaknessin prices, and the relatively low level of interestt rates, improvements in affordability acros the nation's MSAs will continue to incentiviz e repeat and first-time homebuyers back into the market." The areae with the least chance of lowe prices, each with less than a 6 percen probability, include Cleveland; Columbus, Ohio; San Antonio; Houston; Dallas and Fort Texas, according to PMI. The risk of prices dropping runsat 99.9 percenty in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Tampa and Jacksonville in Riverside, Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Sacramento and San Diegio in California; Las Vegas; Phoenix; Providence, and Detroit.